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Santos vs Palmeiras play on 2025-11-16 00:00 in the Brazil - Serie A (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 27.8%. Suggested side: Palmeiras. Moneyline — Home: 4.23 (23.6%), Away: 1.826 (54.8%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Palmeiras. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 4.23, Away: 1.826. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Palmeiras moneyline given current prices.
We find clear value on Palmeiras (away). The market price of 1.826 implies a win probability of ~54.8%, while the research consensus and form indicators support a materially higher true win probability around 70%. That gap (~15 percentage points) generates positive expected value: EV = 0.70 * 1.826 - 1 = 0.278 (27.8% ROI). Minimum fair odds given our probability are 1.429, well below the available 1.826, so the current price offers a large edge. Key drivers are Palmeiras' strong home form and coach stability, Santos' modest scoring rate (1.19 gpm), and broad bookmaker consensus heavily favouring Palmeiras.
Summary: Palmeiras at 1.826 appears to offer significant value versus our 70% win estimate, producing ~27.8% expected ROI.