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Panathinaikos BC vs Iraklis 2022 play on 2025-12-20 16:15 in the Greek Basket League (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 57.0%. Suggested side: Iraklis 2022. Moneyline — Home: 1.025 (97.6%), Away: 13.08 (7.6%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: Iraklis 2022. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.025, Away: 13.08. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Iraklis 2022 moneyline given current prices.
We estimate Panathinaikos as a clear favorite but not as overwhelmingly certain as the market price implies. Consensus models in the research put Panathinaikos around an 88% win probability (implying Iraklis ~12%). The market-moneyline for Panathinaikos (1.025) implies a 97.56% probability, which is markedly shorter than model consensus and compresses value into the long price on Iraklis (13.08). Using our estimated true probability for Iraklis of 0.12, the fair decimal price is ~8.33; the current offer of 13.08 represents positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.12 * 13.08 - 1 = 0.5696 (≈57.0% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The recommendation is therefore to back the away side only because EV > 0 at the quoted 13.08; we do not believe the home price at 1.025 represents value given our estimated probability.
Summary: The market has over-adjusted toward Panathinaikos at 1.025; at our estimated 12% for Iraklis, the away price of 13.08 offers strong positive EV and is a value play despite being a longshot.