SIG StrasbourgVSSaint Quentin

Who will win SIG Strasbourg vs Saint Quentin?

Our lean: Saint Quentin. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.

What are the odds for SIG Strasbourg vs Saint Quentin?

Home: 1.33, Away: 3.9. Odds may update frequently.

What is the best bet for SIG Strasbourg vs Saint Quentin?

Best bet: Saint Quentin moneyline given current prices.

Details

We see clear value on Saint-Quentin at the current price. Market odds (3.9 decimal) imply a win probability of ~25.6%, while our assessment, based on form lines in the research, H2H context and venue, puts Saint-Quentin nearer to 36% to win. Strasbourg is listed as heavy favorite but the research shows alarming recent form for Strasbourg (multiple sources note a run of losses, including 8 losses in 10 and a 5-game losing run) while Saint-Quentin have a roughly positive recent record (about 11 wins in 20). Combining Saint-Quentin's steadier recent results, neutral-to-moderate H2H balance and the fact Strasbourg's form appears to be deteriorating, we estimate a materially higher true win probability than the market. That creates positive expected value: EV = 0.36 * 3.9 - 1 = 0.404 (40.4% ROI). We use the widely-available current moneyline 3.9 for the EV calculation.