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SIG Strasbourg vs Saint Quentin play on 2025-12-21 15:30 in the Pro A (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 40.4%. Suggested side: Saint Quentin. Moneyline — Home: 1.33 (75.2%), Away: 3.9 (25.6%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: Saint Quentin. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.33, Away: 3.9. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Saint Quentin moneyline given current prices.
We see clear value on Saint-Quentin at the current price. Market odds (3.9 decimal) imply a win probability of ~25.6%, while our assessment, based on form lines in the research, H2H context and venue, puts Saint-Quentin nearer to 36% to win. Strasbourg is listed as heavy favorite but the research shows alarming recent form for Strasbourg (multiple sources note a run of losses, including 8 losses in 10 and a 5-game losing run) while Saint-Quentin have a roughly positive recent record (about 11 wins in 20). Combining Saint-Quentin's steadier recent results, neutral-to-moderate H2H balance and the fact Strasbourg's form appears to be deteriorating, we estimate a materially higher true win probability than the market. That creates positive expected value: EV = 0.36 * 3.9 - 1 = 0.404 (40.4% ROI). We use the widely-available current moneyline 3.9 for the EV calculation.
Summary: We find value on Saint-Quentin at 3.9 — our estimated win probability (36%) exceeds the market-implied probability (~25.6%), producing an EV of about 40% on a 1-unit stake.