Toulon Metropole Var HandballVSMetz Handball

Who will win Toulon Metropole Var Handball vs Metz Handball?

Our lean: Toulon Metropole Var Handball. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.

What are the odds for Toulon Metropole Var Handball vs Metz Handball?

Home: 60, Away: 1. Odds may update frequently.

What is the best bet for Toulon Metropole Var Handball vs Metz Handball?

Best bet: Toulon Metropole Var Handball moneyline given current prices.

Details

We see extreme market pricing: the home side is available at 60.0 decimal (implied 1.67%) while the away price is effectively 1.0 (implied 100%), which is almost certainly a data/steam anomaly. Head-to-head and form data strongly favour Metz (10/10 H2H wins, +66 aggregate goals), so the raw probability for Toulon is low. However, single-match variance in cup-style league fixtures and home advantage mean a non-negligible upset chance. We conservatively estimate Toulon's true win probability at 3.0%, which is materially higher than the market-implied 1.67% for the 60.0 price. At that probability the value is positive (EV = 0.03 * 60 - 1 = 0.80). Given the outsized payout relative to our estimated upset chance, the home moneyline represents value despite the high risk; the away line at 1.0 offers no value under any realistic probability.