Loading...
Preparing your betting insights...
Preparing your betting insights...
Toulon Metropole Var Handball vs Metz Handball play on 2025-11-05 19:00 in the LFH Division 1, Women (handball). Compare handball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 80.0%. Suggested side: Toulon Metropole Var Handball. Moneyline — Home: 60 (1.7%), Away: 1.
Our lean: Toulon Metropole Var Handball. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 60, Away: 1. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Toulon Metropole Var Handball moneyline given current prices.
We see extreme market pricing: the home side is available at 60.0 decimal (implied 1.67%) while the away price is effectively 1.0 (implied 100%), which is almost certainly a data/steam anomaly. Head-to-head and form data strongly favour Metz (10/10 H2H wins, +66 aggregate goals), so the raw probability for Toulon is low. However, single-match variance in cup-style league fixtures and home advantage mean a non-negligible upset chance. We conservatively estimate Toulon's true win probability at 3.0%, which is materially higher than the market-implied 1.67% for the 60.0 price. At that probability the value is positive (EV = 0.03 * 60 - 1 = 0.80). Given the outsized payout relative to our estimated upset chance, the home moneyline represents value despite the high risk; the away line at 1.0 offers no value under any realistic probability.
Summary: We find value on Toulon at 60.0 assuming a conservative 3% true win probability — EV ≈ +0.80 per unit — but this is a high-risk longshot against a dominant Metz side.