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Tractor Sport Club vs Al Duhail SC play on 2025-12-22 16:00 in the AFC Champions League Elite (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 22.0%. Suggested side: Al Duhail SC. Moneyline — Home: 2.07 (48.3%), Away: 3.39 (29.5%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Al Duhail SC. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 2.07, Away: 3.39. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Al Duhail SC moneyline given current prices.
We believe Al Duhail represents value at the currently-quoted away price (3.39). Head-to-head and competition context indicate Al Duhail have been competitive versus Tractor (2 wins and 2 draws in the last 5), and as a strong Qatari side in AFC competition they typically perform well away from home in continental fixtures. Tractor will have home advantage at Yadegar-e-Imam Stadium, which is factored into the market price (home 2.07), but the away decimal of 3.39 implies only a ~29.5% chance of an Al Duhail win. Given the H2H balance, Al Duhail's continental pedigree, and generally low-scoring, tight affairs which keep upset potential alive, we estimate Al Duhail's true chance of an outright win at about 36%, creating positive expected value versus 3.39. We note limited specific injury/lineup details in the provided research, so we conservatively incorporate uncertainty into our probability.
Summary: We find value on Al Duhail at 3.39 — our estimated 36% win probability yields ~0.22 EV against the market-implied ~29.5%.