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Barracas Central vs Gimnasia La Plata play on 2026-02-09 20:00 in the Argentina - Liga Pro (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 38.6%. Suggested side: Gimnasia La Plata. Moneyline — Home: 2.54 (39.4%), Away: 3.3 (30.3%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Gimnasia La Plata. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 2.54, Away: 3.3. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Gimnasia La Plata moneyline given current prices.
The market currently prices Gimnasia La Plata at decimal 3.30 (implied ~30%). Our view, driven primarily by a strong head-to-head edge (Gimnasia 5 wins in the last 6 meetings and unbeaten in the last 5), plus model-style scoreline indications that favor narrow Gimnasia wins, suggests the true win probability is materially higher than the market. The home side is being given shorter odds (2.54) despite the H2H and recent meeting trends favoring Gimnasia; that divergence creates value on the away moneyline. We conservatively estimate Gimnasia's win probability at 42%, which requires minimum decimal odds of ~2.381 to break even; the offered 3.30 yields an expected value of +0.386 (38.6% ROI) per unit staked. We note limited contextual details on injuries or current season form in the provided research, so our projection relies heavily on the persistent H2H advantage and bookmaker price disconnect.
Summary: We find value on Gimnasia La Plata at 3.30 due to clear head-to-head dominance and a market that appears to underprice the away win; estimated EV is +38.6% at our probability estimate.