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Toulouse FC vs Amiens SC play on 2026-02-04 19:30 in the Coupe de France (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 27.5%. Suggested side: Amiens SC. Moneyline — Home: 1.275 (78.4%), Away: 9.11 (11.0%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Amiens SC. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.275, Away: 9.11. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Amiens SC moneyline given current prices.
We compared the market prices to a conservative assessment of the match balance based only on the provided research. The market implies Amiens win probability of ~10.97% at 9.11 decimal odds. From the supplied sources: head-to-head records show Toulouse has the edge historically but Amiens has taken wins and draws in the recent meetings; one match-snapshot notes Toulouse's recent 5-game sequence (W1 D1 L3), indicating form vulnerability. Coupe de France ties produce more variance than league fixtures, which increases upset chance. Balancing Toulouse's overall H2H superiority against their wobble in recent results and the single-elimination cup context, we estimate Amiens' true win probability at 14.0%. At that probability the available away price (9.11) represents value (EV = 0.14 * 9.11 - 1 ≈ +0.275) while the short home price (1.30) would require Toulouse to be >76.9% likely to win — higher than our assessment. We therefore recommend Amiens only because the current away price offers a clear positive expected value given our 14% win probability estimate.
Summary: We find value backing Amiens at 9.11 because the market understates their upset chance; our 14% win probability yields ~27.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake.