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Queretaro vs Club Leon play on 2026-02-05 23:00 in the Mexico - Liga MX Women (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 61.7%. Suggested side: Queretaro. Moneyline — Home: 3.85 (26.0%), Away: 1.893 (52.8%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Queretaro. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 3.85, Away: 1.893. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Queretaro moneyline given current prices.
We estimate clear value on Queretaro (home) because head-to-head history favors them and several data points suggest Leon's recent form is weak. Historical H2H shows Querétaro has won roughly 40–44% of recent meetings (7/16 and 8/20 referenced), and León reportedly did not win any of their last five Liga MX Women matches, which weakens the market-implied favoritism. The market decimal price for Queretaro (3.85) implies a 25.97% win probability, while we estimate Queretaro's true win probability at 42.0%, producing a substantial edge (≈16 percentage points). Using the current price (3.85) yields an expected value of 0.617 (61.7% ROI per unit). Even allowing for uncertainty, the required fair odds to break even on our probability is 2.381, well below the available 3.85, so we recommend backing Queretaro at current prices.
Summary: We see value on Queretaro at 3.85 because H2H and reported recent form for León support a ~42% win chance, much higher than the market-implied ~26%.