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Northern Kentucky Norse vs Green Bay Phoenix play on 2026-02-05 00:00 in the NCAA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 15.2%. Suggested side: Green Bay Phoenix. Moneyline — Home: 1.32 (75.8%), Away: 3.2 (31.3%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: Green Bay Phoenix. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.32, Away: 3.2. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Green Bay Phoenix moneyline given current prices.
We find value on Green Bay (away) at the current moneyline (3.20). The market consensus shows Northern Kentucky as clear favorites across sources (some books listing NKU around 1.55), but the current 1.32 price for NKU implies a ~75.8% win probability that appears inflated given recent form and context. Green Bay beat Northern Kentucky 80-78 in January, and Green Bay has no reported injuries while Northern Kentucky has injury entries listed in the matchup report, suggesting the matchup is closer than a 75% favorite implies. The divergence between available lines (books around 1.55 vs the current 1.32) indicates market compression or a soft favorite price; at 3.20 we estimate Green Bay’s true win probability materially higher than the implied 31.25%, creating positive expected value on the away moneyline.
Summary: We see value on Green Bay at 3.20 because the true win probability is likely closer to mid-30s while the market implies ~31%, producing a positive EV.