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Old Dominion Monarchs vs UL-Monroe Warhawks play on 2026-02-05 00:00 in the NCAA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 24.0%. Suggested side: UL-Monroe Warhawks. Moneyline — Home: 1.08 (92.6%), Away: 6.2 (16.1%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: UL-Monroe Warhawks. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.08, Away: 6.2. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: UL-Monroe Warhawks moneyline given current prices.
The market prices Old Dominion extremely short (1.08 implied ~92.6%) which is inconsistent with the form-line and records in the research (ODU ~5-3 vs ULM ~3-5) and recent notes of ODU inconsistency. There is no strong evidence of a crushing mismatch, and ODU has mixed SU form and only moderate ATS strength — this suggests the true win probability for UL-Monroe is materially higher than the market-implied ~16%. Using a conservative true probability estimate of 20% for UL-Monroe vs the available decimal price 6.20 produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.20*6.20 - 1 = 0.24). The price 6.20 is above the minimum fair-price odds (5.00) implied by our probability, so backing the away side represents value under the tiered-odds/value-betting framework. We note uncertainty from limited matchup and injury detail, so we use a conservative p=0.20 rather than a higher estimate.
Summary: We find value on UL-Monroe at 6.20 — a conservative 20% win probability yields a positive EV (~0.24) because the market overstresses Old Dominion.