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SMU Mustangs vs North Carolina State Wolfpack play on 2026-02-04 02:00 in the NCAA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 2.3%. Suggested side: SMU Mustangs. Moneyline — Home: 1.93 (51.8%), Away: 1.85 (54.1%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: SMU Mustangs. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.93, Away: 1.85. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: SMU Mustangs moneyline given current prices.
We identify a small positive edge on SMU (home). Market decimal odds give SMU 1.93 (implied 51.8%). Combining the research signals — SMU's recent form (3-2) and relatively better road ATS performance, contrasted with NC State's poor ATS run in February and tendency to push totals higher — we assess SMU's true win probability slightly above the market. We estimate SMU's true probability at 53.0%, which requires minimum fair odds of ~1.887. The current market price of 1.93 exceeds that threshold, producing a small positive expected value (EV = 0.53 * 1.93 - 1 ≈ 0.023). The edge is modest and sensitive to model variance and lineup/injury news, but given the directional form and ATS splits in the research, betting SMU at 1.93 represents value compared with our estimate.
Summary: We see a small value on SMU at 1.93 driven by recent form and contrasting ATS trends; the edge is modest but positive.