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SMU vs NC State play on 2026-02-04 02:00 in the NCAA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 8.0%. Suggested side: SMU. Moneyline — Home: 2.25 (44.4%), Away: 1.68 (59.5%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: SMU. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 2.25, Away: 1.68. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: SMU moneyline given current prices.
The market currently prices NC State as the favorite (away ML 1.68, implied win prob ~59.5%) while SMU is available at 2.25 (implied ~44.4%). Multiple predictive models and previews in the provided Research lean toward a tight game with several models/pundits showing SMU as at least competitive (some earlier quoted lines even showed SMU around -125). We assess those model signals plus situational context in the Research and conclude SMU's true win probability is higher than the market-implied 44.4%. We estimate SMU's true probability at 48%; at decimal odds 2.25 that yields EV = 0.48 * 2.25 - 1 = +0.08 (8% ROI). The minimum fair decimal odds for that probability is 1/0.48 = 2.083, so the current 2.25 offers positive expected value. Key risks are divergence among sources and limited injury/rotation detail in the Research, which could swing the fair price toward the market.
Summary: We find value on SMU moneyline at 2.25 — our model-derived win probability (48%) implies positive expected value (~+8%).