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San Diego FC vs Pumas UNAM play on 2026-02-04 04:00 in the CONCACAF - Champions Cup (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 7.4%. Suggested side: San Diego FC. Moneyline — Home: 1.952 (51.2%), Away: 3.37 (29.7%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: San Diego FC. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.952, Away: 3.37. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: San Diego FC moneyline given current prices.
We see positive value on San Diego FC at the current home moneyline (1.952). The market-implied probability for a San Diego win is about 51.2%, but the available research indicates San Diego have stronger recent form (their last-5 performance is described as better than Pumas) and they'll enjoy home advantage at Snapdragon Stadium. Pumas average ~1.39 goals when playing away, which suggests moderate attacking threat but not overwhelming dominance on the road. Given the combination of home venue, San Diego's better recent results, and the single MLS vs Liga MX pairing context, we assess San Diego's true win probability above the market-implied level. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 55%, the current price (1.952) yields a positive expected value (EV). We note uncertainty due to limited injury/lineup details and the variability of continental cup ties, but on balance the price offers value.
Summary: We find value on San Diego FC to win at 1.952 based on home advantage and stronger recent form, giving an estimated 55% win probability and ~7.4% ROI.