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Santos vs Cruzeiro play on 2025-12-07 19:00 in the Brazil - Serie A (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 69.6%. Suggested side: Cruzeiro. Moneyline — Home: 1.645 (60.8%), Away: 4.71 (21.2%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Cruzeiro. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.645, Away: 4.71. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Cruzeiro moneyline given current prices.
We assess value on Cruzeiro (away) because the market prices Santos as a heavy favorite (1.645 implied ~60.8%) despite a clear season-long performance gap: Cruzeiro sits 3rd with 69 points while Santos are 16th with 41. Historical H2H and recent form lean toward Cruzeiro (H2H edge for Cruzeiro in most sources, and Cruzeiro has strong away results this season). Given those factors, we estimate Cruzeiro's true win probability substantially exceeds the market-implied 21.2% for the 4.71 moneyline, creating positive expected value at the quoted price. Using a conservative true-win estimate of 36%, the required fair decimal price is ~2.78, well below the current 4.71, producing a large positive EV.
Summary: We recommend a Cruzeiro moneyline bet: the market undervalues Cruzeiro's chance (4.71) relative to our estimated probability (36%), yielding strong positive EV.