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Vitoria vs Sao Paulo play on 2025-12-07 19:00 in the Brazil - Serie A (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 32.0%. Suggested side: Sao Paulo. Moneyline — Home: 1.98 (50.5%), Away: 4 (25.0%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Sao Paulo. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.98, Away: 4. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Sao Paulo moneyline given current prices.
The market prices São Paulo at 4.00 (implied win prob 25%) while Vitória is 1.98 (implied 50.5%). Our assessment, using the provided H2H and recent-match data, is that São Paulo is substantially stronger historically (many more wins in the H2H series and a recent 2-0 victory in Aug 2025) and has shown the ability to win on the road. Vitória is noted to have only a mild home advantage. Balancing São Paulo's historical dominance and recent head-to-head result against the note that São Paulo's league form is "mixed," we estimate São Paulo's true win probability at 33%. At the current away price of 4.00 this represents value: EV = 0.33 * 4.00 - 1 = +0.32 (32% ROI). The market therefore appears to underprice São Paulo's chance to win outright.
Summary: We find value on São Paulo at 4.00: our estimated win probability (33%) implies a required price of ~3.03, so the current odds give a positive EV (~32% ROI).