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Sutton United vs Shrewsbury Town play on 2025-12-06 17:15 in the England FA Cup (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 36.3%. Suggested side: Sutton United. Moneyline — Home: 2.84 (35.2%), Away: 2.36 (42.4%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Sutton United. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 2.84, Away: 2.36. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Sutton United moneyline given current prices.
We find value on Sutton United (home) because available prices (home 2.84) overstate Shrewsbury's edge relative to the qualitative evidence. Previews and H2H/stat summaries describe a very small gap between the sides and explicitly note a mild Sutton home advantage; the market instead prices the away side as the favourite. Normalising the two-way market implies the away side is favoured, but given the close form/H2H balance and typical FA Cup home-edge and upset variance, a fair win probability for Sutton is materially higher than the break-even threshold for 2.84. At our estimated true probability of 48% for Sutton, the 2.84 quote yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.363 per 1 unit). We therefore recommend backing Sutton only because the current decimal price offers positive EV versus our modelled probability.
Summary: We see value on Sutton United at 2.84 because the market overstates the away edge; at an estimated 48% true win probability Sutton offers a ~36% ROI.