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UConn Huskies vs Xavier Musketeers play on 2026-02-04 00:00 in the NCAA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: -3.0%. No recommended side at current prices. Moneyline — Home: 1.01 (99.0%), Away: 9.8 (10.2%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
No clear edge at current prices. We recommend passing or waiting for line movement.
Home: 1.01, Away: 9.8. Odds may update frequently.
No bet recommended right now.
We find no value on either side at the quoted moneylines. The market prices UConn at decimal 1.01 (implied ~99.01%); our assessment — based on UConn's clear dominance, recent blowout results against Xavier in the provided previews, and home-court advantage — puts UConn's true win probability materially lower than the market-implied number but still very high (we estimate ~96%). At decimal 1.01 this yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.96 * 1.01 - 1 ≈ -0.0304). Conversely, Xavier's price (9.8, implied ~10.2%) overstates their upset chances versus our estimate (~4%), producing an even larger negative EV for backing the away side. Because neither side offers positive EV at current widely-available prices, we recommend no moneyline bet.
Summary: No value on the moneyline: UConn is very likely to win but 1.01 is too short to be profitable by our estimates; Xavier's long price is also unsupported by the evidence.