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Virginia Cavaliers vs Pittsburgh Panthers play on 2026-02-04 02:00 in the NCAA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: -2.8%. No recommended side at current prices. Moneyline — Home: 1.08 (92.6%), Away: 6.2 (16.1%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
No clear edge at current prices. We recommend passing or waiting for line movement.
Home: 1.08, Away: 6.2. Odds may update frequently.
No bet recommended right now.
We estimate Virginia is a heavy favorite based on form (Virginia 4-1 recently) and the strong head-to-head edge (Virginia has beaten Pittsburgh 9 of the last 11 meetings). The market price of Virginia 1.08 implies ~92.6% win probability. We judge Virginia’s true win probability at about 90% given historical dominance but allowing for variance and Pittsburgh’s occasional covers; at that true probability the moneyline 1.08 produces a negative expected value. Pittsburgh’s ATS trend (4-2 ATS in last 6 vs Virginia) shows they can keep games closer, but does not change the low likelihood of an upset sufficient to justify backing Virginia at current odds. Therefore there is no value on either side at the quoted prices.
Summary: Market prices Virginia slightly too short for value; at an estimated 90% win probability the 1.08 moneyline yields a negative EV, so we recommend no bet.