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Virginia vs Pittsburgh play on 2026-02-04 02:00 in the NCAA (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 0.0%. No recommended side at current prices. Moneyline — Home: 1.084 (92.3%), Away: 8.6 (11.6%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
No clear edge at current prices. We recommend passing or waiting for line movement.
Home: 1.084, Away: 8.6. Odds may update frequently.
No bet recommended right now.
We estimate Virginia is the clear favorite based on recent form (Virginia 4-1 in last 5) and dominant head-to-head history (Pittsburgh 2-9 SU in last 11 vs Virginia / 1-10 SU in extended runs). However the current moneyline for Virginia (1.084 implied ~92.2%) leaves almost no margin for error. Our judgment of a realistic win probability for Virginia is 90.0%, which is below the market-implied probability at the posted price, so the moneyline carries negative expected value. To find value we would need Virginia priced at about 1.111 or higher; at the current 1.084 we expect a small negative ROI. Given the available evidence (form, venue, H2H) there is no profitable value to back at current prices.
Summary: Virginia is the clear favorite but the current price (1.084) offers no value versus our 90% win estimate; we recommend no bet.